World refined production is estimated to have increased by aroun
d 7% (130,000t) in January 2016 compared with refined production in the same month of 2015: primary production was up by 7% and secondary production (from scrap) was up by 6%. The main contributor to growth was China (+14%), followed by the United States where production increased by 30%. Output in Chile, the second leading refined copper producer, increased by 4.5%. On a regional basis, refined output in January is estimated to have increased in the Americas (10%), Asia (10%) and Oceania (20%) while declining in Africa (-12%) and remaining unchanged inEurope. The average world refinery capacity utilization rate for January 2016 increased to 85% from 81% in January 2015.
Based on the average of stock estimates provided by independent consultants, Chinaâs bonded stocks in creased by around 15,000 t
in January 2016 from the year-end 2015 level. Stocks increased by around 5,000 t in the same month of 2015. In January 2016, the world refined copper balance adjusted for the change in Chinese bonded stocks indicates a production surplus of around 70,000 t compared to a surplus of around 15,000 t in January 2015.
The average LME cash price for March was US$4,947.55 per tonne, up from the February average of US$4,595.48 per tonne. The 2016 high and low copper prices through the end of March were US$5,103.00 (on 18th Mar) and US$4,310.50 per tonne (on 15th Jan), respectively, and the year-to-date average was US$4,671.91 per tonne (15% below 2015 annual average). As of the end of March, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 594,627 t, an increase of 112,759 t (23%) from stocks held at the end of December 2015. Compared with the December 2015 levels, stocks were up at the SHFE and COMEX and down at LME.
